Even this far ahead of the 2025 Grammys, one thing can be said with virtually no shadow of a doubt: It won’t be a male artist picking up the album of the year trophy.
The bigger question is whether a man has a shot at even getting nominated among the eight slots open.
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Should a shutout turn out to be the case, it would mark a first in Grammy history — although it came close to happening with the ’24 Grammys, in which Jon Batiste was the only male artist nominated in the top category. With just a month to go in the eligibility period for the Feb. 2, 2025 awards, it’s hard to find any album from a male artist that seems like a shoo-in, as women’s long-players continue to dominate the intersection of popular zeitgeist and tastemaker picks that the Grammys typically represent. Even a list of long shots mostly favors women.
With eight slots to be filled, three albums have have been viewed as locks for months: Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Department,” Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” and Billie Eilish’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft.”
And we may just have reached the tipping point where it seems safe to lock in a fourth, a freshman effort dating back to late 2023 that’s come up from behind to be close to an utter certainty for an album of the year nod: Chappell Roan’s “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” the buzz album of summer 2024.
If we accept these four as seeming non-negotiables, what’s left for the remaining four slots? Two more extremely strong leading candidates are Ariana Grande’s “Eternal Sunshine” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Short N’ Sweet.” Making a prediction for the latter album involves taking its possible excellence on faith, since the album isn’t out till Aug. 23 — just under the wire for eligibility — and no one outside of her camp has heard it. But the fact that two singles from the collection have turned into utter summer phenomena bodes well for its support.
What other albums are viable contenders? Charli XCX’s “Brat” is a big question mark that could be a sleeper; although it hasn’t yet proven a commercial blockbuster, Charli is just about on par with Chappell as an artist-of-the-moment, and the Kamala Harris campaign’s return support of Ms. XCX’s seeming endorsement may have given “Brat” a boost all by itself.
Kacey Musgraves’ “Deeper Well” remains a contender for a nomination, especially taking into account that she has a past win on the books for “Golden Hour.” Doja Cat is a past nominee, too, with “Planet Her (Deluxe),” so it’s no stretch to imagine “Scarlet” getting in this time. Lainey Wilson’s “Whirlwind,” which comes out a week before the close of eligibility, could finally land country’s current leading lady the kind of love from the Grammys that she’s already enjoyed from every Nashville organization and fan-voted honor. And Tyla’s “Tyla” and Kali Ulchis’ “Orquídeas” could be sleepers, even if their respective genres haven’t gotten loads of respect in top Grammy categories.
With all that competition, then, to paraphrase the great Three 6 Mafia, it’s hard out there for a person of the male persuasion.
The list of men who are obvious contenders is a short and uncertain one. Billboard’s awards guru, Paul Grein, has already weighed in with his predictions for the eight slots, and the only guy he picked to make the cut was Chris Stapleton, with “Higher.” That’s certainly a possibility, because the Grammys love Stapleton (with 20 nominations and 10 wins) — just not so much in the album of the year category, since he hasn’t landed a nod there since his big breakout, “Traveller,” got nominated nine years ago. The Grammys also seem to have had a bias against country in recent years in the top four categories. The last time a straight-ahead, non-crossover country collection got nominated for album of the year was… yes, you guessed it, with Stapleton’s nod for the 2016 proceedings.
At the Gold Derby site, users have been voting on what they think will be nominated, and the top dozen picks there include just three male or male-fronted acts: Stapleton, Vampire Weekend (with “Only God Was Above Us”) and Jacob Collier (for “Djesse Volume 4”). The latter two are undoubtedly faring well in that fan voting because those acts’ previous albums got nominated for album of the year, but it’d certainly count as an upset if either of them made that lightning strike twice.
Here’s an irony, though: the list of the top singles of the year is dominated by dudes — so, on a commercial level, don’t cry for them. But it’s easier to imagine any of them contending for record or song of the year than in the album category.
Benson Boone has the most streamed single of the year, both in the U.S. and globally, so it’s difficult to imagine him not getting one or more nominations for that, or for best new artist. Having his album, “Fireworks and Roller Blades,” contend in its category is far from out of the realm of possibility, but he just seems likely to get his Grammy love elsewhere.
Noah Kahan and Morgan Wallen have the second- and third-most-consumed albums of this year, respectively, behind Swift’s. But in case you’ve forgotten, those were 2022 or early 2023 releases, well past their eligibility despite their ongoing dominance as blockbusters. (The Grammys missed the boat on nominating Kahan’s album when they probably should have. As for the controversial Wallen, he’s never received a Grammy nomination before, so the Recording Academy likely wouldn’t start with album of the year.)
Zach Bryan is an interesting question mark, being indisputably one of the hottest artists of 2024. But he was also one of the hottest artists of 2022 and 2023, and the Grammys only showed their support in genre categories then, so it remains to be seen if he could move up to the general field with the new release “The Great American Bar Scene.” The fan zeal is undeniably there, and critics have largely gotten behind him, too — but his estrangement from Nashville could cost him some of the country music industry vote, while he may still sound too country for coastal Recording Academy members. If he snuck in after all, it would count as a surprising moment for someone who loves being considered outside this kind of machinery.
Another question mark is Post Malone’s country album, coming out in August. Most Grammy watchers are waiting to hear it before offering any predictions. For anyone who’s inclined to reward a superstar crossing over from pop into country, voters already have Beyoncé’s album (which features Malone), although a project like Posty’s that has a Wallen feature as the first single is obviously going after a different audience.
So, in summary, we can look to Katy Perry’s “Woman’s World” to be the unofficial theme song for this year’s Grammys, even if her single probably won’t be living in it (and her album doesn’t come out till after the eligibility period).
